Is Real Madrid hoping for a poor World Cup from Vinicius Junior? The bizarre situation surrounding the superstar is coming to a head

Talks over extending Vinicius's contract with Real Madrid, which runs until 2027, have been on hold since last July's Club World Cup. The upcoming World Cup will directly influence the player's valuation and could scupper a quiet hope held by Real Madrid's hierarchy.

If the 23-year-old impresses for Brazil, his bargaining power will rise. Clubs monitoring his situation could step up their pursuit, confident that a year left on his deal would keep the asking price relatively low. That scenario would allow Vinicius to push for higher wages when renegotiating in Madrid.

According to AS, the winger initially sought an eye-watering salary of around €28 million per year but later dropped that demand, aiming instead for terms matching those of star teammate Kylian Mbappé (just over €14 million annually). Nothing appeared to stand in the way of an extension, which Vinicius had even announced publicly.

Talks then stalled, partly because Vinicius felt underappreciated under former coach Xabi Alonso; that perception improved under Alonso's successor, Alvaro Arbeloa. Arbeloa has since departed, and José Mourinho is widely expected to take the hot seat from next season.

It remains to be seen whether Vinicius will be happy with the Mourinho solution. The club's ongoing turbulence only adds to the uncertainty surrounding Vini Jr.'s future, especially with the presidential election set for this Sunday. Incumbent president Florentino Perez recently shrugged when asked on TVE whether Vinicius would be extending his contract soon: "I don't know. If you're asking for my opinion, I'd like him to stay. He's one of the best in the world."

Should the forward, a key figure in the Selecao under former Real coach Carlo Ancelotti, have a poor World Cup, the club would at least avoid the risk of further inflated wage demands. Conversely, if the parties do decide to part ways this summer—to prevent losing him for free next year—a lacklustre tournament could depress his transfer value, limiting the funds available to sign a replacement.

Either way, time is on Vinicius's side, not Real's. Both parties still want to keep working together. According to AS, the player's camp has not yet rejected a renewal and is not planning to leave on a free transfer in 2027. His priority is to stay with Los Blancos.

Vinicius, who moved from Flamengo to Madrid in 2018 at the age of 18, has had a decent but far from brilliant season. Real failed to win a title for the second consecutive year, while the Selecao star found himself on the bench under Alonso and was even booed by his own fans on occasion. His numbers—22 goals and 14 assists in 53 appearances across all competitions in 2025/26—are solid, yet the sense of underachievement remains.

At the World Cup, Vinicius and Brazil sit in the outer ring of favourites. The five-time champions are not among the absolute front-runners: their qualifying campaign was too inconsistent, and their points tally was historically poor. The bookmakers' top picks—France, Spain and Argentina—all possess greater squad depth.

In 48 caps he has scored only nine goals, a modest return for a player of his profile. Last weekend, however, he helped spark World Cup optimism with an early goal and an assist in Brazil's 6-2 friendly win over Panama. The Madrid forward netted inside the opening minutes and then provided an assist; the final warm-up against Egypt takes place on Saturday.

Brazil opens its World Cup campaign on 12 June against dark horses Morocco, and will then face Scotland and Haiti in the group stage.